In The Cattle Markets

June 1, 2026

David Anderson, Ph.D.
Professor and Extension Specialist – Livestock and Food Product Marketing
Department of Agricultural Economics
Texas A&M University

Beef Production Seasonality

Beef production has an important seasonal nature that cattle production systems, feeding, and finished weights have not eliminated.  That seasonality contributes to the supply side of seasonal beef prices.  It looks like some seasonally larger beef production might be taking hold.

Beef production tends to hit its annual seasonal low in the Spring.  It appears that this seasonal increase is beginning.  From January through April, weekly average beef production was 6.1 percent below the same period in 2025.  Year-over-year weekly beef production ranged from down 3.2 percent to down 11.2 percent.  The decline in beef production moderated during May, with the weekly decline in beef production averaging only 3.8 percent. 

Beef production is the product of the number of cattle going to slaughter and their weights.  Steer slaughter tends to increase from Spring to Summer, before declining later in the year.  There has been a slight uptick in steer slaughter in recent weeks.  Heifer slaughter tends to decline in early Summer, but this year it has increased a bit.  On the cow side, dairy cow slaughter is even with a year ago and is right on pace with its usual seasonal decline.  Beef cow culling, while remaining below a year ago, has jumped up in recent weeks compared to early in the year.  Fed cattle weights remain historically large, and dressed steer and heifer weights have experienced a small decline in recent weeks. 

Within this production seasonality is changing beef production by USDA beef quality grades affecting the supply of each grade and price premiums.  Over the last 4 weeks, the percentage of beef grading Prime has averaged 16.99 percent.  The amount grading Select has an average of 8.23 percent.  The percent grading Prime is double the amount grading Select!  Choice beef grading has remained about the same at 71.6 percent.  The boost in Prime supplies is likely taking a toll on the Prime-Choice cutout price spread, which has declined from $20.87 in May 2025 to $15.88 in May 2026. 

Beef production that is increasing seasonally, combined with changing grading percentages, may result in more beef than a year ago for some grades (Prime) than others.  Total beef production is not going to exceed a year ago, but there are more cattle on feed than a year ago, continued heavy dressed weights, and seasonality in beef production, which have the potential to increase beef production from the tight supplies this Spring.

The Markets

Rain over the last two months has sharply changed the drought monitor map through Central Texas.  A large portion of the area now shows no drought on the drought monitor map, yet drought remains entrenched in South Texas, West Texas, the Panhandle, and East Texas.  The weekly average Choice boxed beef cutout has slowly built value over the past few weeks, led by growth in flank values.  Primal brisket values look to be headed higher as summertime kicks in.

Data Source: USDA-AMS Market News as compiled by LMIC