Livestock Marketing Information Center

Livestock Monitor
Updated: 2/13/2026

CATTLE AND SHEEP INVENTORY LEVELS FALL

The U.S. cattle herd continued to decline for the seventh consecutive year. USDA-NASS reported on January 1, 2026, that all cattle and calves were at 86.155 million head, down nearly 317,000 head (-0.4%) from the prior year and the lowest herd size since 1951 (82.1 million head). Most of the decline in inventory levels occurred in Kansas and Missouri, which were reported down 100,000 head each. New Mexico fell 90,000 head, Arizona and Wyoming decreased by 60,000 head, and Iowa was down 50,000 head. Most other states reported declines that were around 10,000 to 20,000 head.

OUTLOOK FOR FEED COSTS HOLDS STEADY AS WEAK DOLLAR SUPPORTS EXPORTS

The USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist released its monthly commodity market projections this week. A highlight was boosting projected corn exports for the current crop year to an unprecedented high of 3.3 billion bushels, +30% higher than the record set last year. Combined with strong corn refining usage for ethanol, price prospects for this year’s corn crop are now expected to hold steady at slightly above $4.00 per bushel. So far this crop year, that began last September, corn prices at the farm have averaged slightly below $4.00 per bushel, but the December average was $4.10 per bushel. Steady to slightly higher prices between now and the end of the crop year in August would result in satisfying the current price forecast.

CHICKEN INDUSTRY KEEPING PRODUCTION PLANS IN CHECK FOR 2026

            Retail sales at food service and drinking places in December were up +4.5% from a year earlier, exceeding the pace of retail trade in general that was up +3.8%. Grocery store sales were up +2.2%. All three of these comparisons reflected improvements from November’s year-over-year gains, which was a bit of a surprise but may reflect the impact of the federal government reopening after some precautionary pullbacks in spending during November.