Livestock Marketing Information Center
In The Cattle Markets
Updated: 8/11/2025
Beef Demand – Key Producer Vitality Driver in 2025
Calendar year 2025 continues to develop as one we are likely to remember for some time. Cattle prices are up substantially, many areas are greener and wetter than in recent years, and yes, we are on the cusp of college football starting (fingers crossed the KC Royals can make a playoff push also!). While good times indeed should be enjoyed it is prudent to pause and take stock of key fundamentals at play. Here, the outsized role of beef demand is again worth highlighting.
Livestock Monitor
Updated: 8/1/2025
CATTLE INVENTORY AND CATTLE ON FEED REPORTS
Last week, USDA-NASS released their July Cattle and Cattle on Feed reports, both of which suggested that the U.S. cattle herd is likely nearing its cyclical low, although any definitive signs of expansion remain unclear. The projected 2025 calf crop was estimated at 33.1 million head, which is down roughly -1.4% from two years ago, reflecting tighter supplies and continued contraction in the national herd. As of July 1, beef cow inventories were estimated down from 2023 by -1.2% to 28.7 million head; replacement beef heifers also declined -2.6% to 3.7 million head. Heifers on feed represented 38.1% of total feedlot inventories, corresponding to a pullback of -1.5% from the same quarter in 2024.
JUNE RED MEAT AND POULTRY STOCKS LOWER
Total red meat in cold storage was reported at 839 million pounds in June, down -7% (59 million pounds) from the prior year. In June, total beef in cold storage fell -12% to 21 million pounds. The decline was due to a 7 million pound (-6%) decrease in boneless beef to 354 million pounds and beef cuts falling 3 million pounds (-24%) to 41 million pounds. Lamb and mutton stocks were down -12% (3 million lbs.) to 21 million pounds.
DAIRY HERD EXPANSION CONTINUES TO BE BRISK; MILK PRICES HOLD STEADY
The nation’s milk cow herd in June was 9.469 million cows, up from 9.355 million cows six months ago. Four thousand cows were added to the herd in June according to the preliminary estimate by USDA-NASS. This followed two consecutive months of 29 thousand head additions per month. Over the last twelve months, the national dairy herd has expanded by +1.5%. The expansion is consistent with milk production profitability last year that was at the highest levels in about a decade.
Livestock Monitor (pdf)